Get access to over 1,300 articles and reader Q&As
Does past fertility success tell us anything about future success? For example, if someone got pregnant on the first attempt, does that tell us anything about future success?
—Confused in Colorado
Past fertility does tell us something about future success, although it’s not a perfect predictor.
Here is how I’d think about it. Although we often talk about people being “fertile” or “infertile,” fertility isn’t binary like this. Some people will get pregnant very easily, some less easily, some can get pregnant, but it is very hard (this is sometimes referred to as “subfertility”), and some people are totally unable to. Put differently, fertility is on a continuum.
If you get pregnant easily the first time, it’s a signal of where you are on this continuum — namely, that you’re on the more fertile end. But it is also possible that you’re on the less fertile end and just got lucky. Conditional on getting pregnant easily the first time, the chance you are more fertile is higher, but it’s not a guarantee. Unfortunately, we do not have the kind of data you may be looking for — exact percentages of how likely you are to get pregnant in the same timeframe, for example.
The other thing to keep in mind is age. As we age, we become less fertile. If you got pregnant easily at 25, it’s still likely to be a lot harder at 39. If your last pregnancy was recent, it’s likely to be more informative.
When it comes to fertility, we’re often looking for detailed, precise answers, and they are not often forthcoming. This is frustrating, but sometimes just helpful to acknowledge.
Community Guidelines
Log in