We’ve been invited to a wedding in Italy (I know) this summer. If we go, we’d bring our toddler, who will be almost 2. The weekend after this wedding, my cousin is getting married back here in the U.S. If we got COVID from the trip and missed the wedding, our cause of death would be murder by my aunt. This is a TL;DR way of asking what the chances are of either us or our unmasked toddler getting COVID from wedding #1/an eight-hour flight?—Thank You
First, I know you didn’t ask for this feedback, but I feel compelled to provide it. Even putting aside the issue of wedding #2 and completely ignoring COVID, I’d be a little cautious about the Italy travel simply for your own sanity. Or at least go in with your eyes open. Long flights with almost-2-year-olds are difficult. Time changes are a challenge. Weddings (and the possible hangovers) are less fun. I’m not saying you shouldn’t go for this reason! I’m just highlighting it, in case you haven’t done a lot of international travel with the kid yet.
Turning now to the actual question you asked me: What is the risk from the flight and wedding? Airplanes, with their filtration systems and so on, haven’t been seen to be a large risk for COVID-19. And if rates continue to fall, it seems likely that by summer they will be very low. It’s hard to put numbers on such small risks as this, but the COVID piece of this risk seems well within the space of the other risks you take by going on this trip that might affect wedding #2 (canceled flights, other illnesses, etc.). Of course, things could change (this is always true, and not just about COVID), so if you do decide to go, you may want to have a plan in place for what might make you change your mind.
My bottom line here is, really, that I am not sure you should go, but from a COVID standpoint it seems fine.