Emily Oster

9 min Read Emily Oster

Today’s post is about vitamins. There is a fantastic book called Vitamania on the history and nutritional impacts of vitamins — if you want to go deeper on the subject, check it out.

Last week, a new study in the New England Journal of Medicine showed convincing evidence that vitamin D supplementation did not reduce the risk of fractures in older adults. The study was a large randomized trial, exactly what we want for our “gold standard,” and the results are clear. This particular trial also looked at impacts on other outcomes, like cancer and heart disease, and found nothing. There are other trials, and they show the same thing. We have no convincing evidence that routine vitamin D supplementation does anything at all. The study — along with all the other evidence — prompted headlines like “Stop Taking Vitamin D Already.” 

Vitamins are a stark example of where the confusion between correlation and causation can lead us astray. Consumption of vitamin supplements on a routine basis is very highly associated with other health behaviors. I’ve written about this before, in the newsletter and in my academic work.

One thing I found, looking at vitamin E specifically, is that it is not just that consumption of vitamin E is more common among a select sample of people. It’s also that when the advice about whether to take the vitamin changes, the people who respond to that advice (either taking it more if it’s now recommended, or not taking it when it’s less recommended) are not representative of the general population. I show, for example, that when vitamin E is more recommended, it also appears to be highly correlated with lower death rates. But that’s not because it reduces death; it’s because when you tell people to take vitamin E, the people who take up that recommendation are also engaged in other health behaviors.

Given this, it is perhaps not surprising that when researchers study virtually any individual vitamin supplement, they tend to find … nothing. Like here, with multivitamins. Or the aforementioned vitamin D results.

And yet! A lot of people take vitamins, or give their kids gummy vitamins, or think of vitamins as healthy. The result is that when we talk about vitamins, our default is often that vitamins are beneficial. We may be accepting of the idea that the evidence doesn’t support it in some individual case, but “vitamins are good for you” is where we begin.

In fact, given what we know, I would suggest we need to flip our starting point. We should assume that for the most part we do not need vitamin supplements. And then we can ask: Are there any exceptions to that? Today’s post will, therefore, take that frame. Let’s begin by assuming that mostly you do not need vitamin supplements. What are the situations in which that’s not true? I’m going to suggest that there are really only three: specific deficiencies, pregnancy, and infancy.

Reason 1 for taking vitamins: You have a severe deficiency of a particular vitamin 

Humans need vitamins to survive. For example: an extreme deficiency of vitamin C can cause scurvy. You’re probably familiar with that from 16th-century ocean voyages. Without fresh food, sailors who were gone for months or years developed severe vitamin C deficiency. Scurvy is bad — your gums bleed, you bruise easily, there is fatigue and rash. It can cause death. Similarly, a severe deficiency of vitamin D can cause rickets in children, a bone issue that results in bowlegs. An extreme lack of vitamin A can cause blindness. And so on.

However: these severe deficiencies are very rare in the current developed world  setting, largely because you do not actually need that much of each vitamin. Eating a handful of ketchup packets every day would be enough vitamin C to ward off scurvy. A typical Western diet, even one for a child who seems picky, will have plenty of vitamin A. To be clear, we do see severe vitamin deficiency issues in many developing countries, where vitamin supplementation for children is still needed. But this isn’t broadly the case in the West.

Vitamin D deficiency in childhood is the one case where — perhaps — there is more reason to be concerned. Having said that, a lot of foods are now supplemented with vitamin D for this reason (including, say, milk). So again, your child is likely to currently have a fine amount of vitamin D.

There are certain genetic conditions or illnesses that inhibit the ability to absorb vitamins, in which case supplements may be necessary. And for people who have had bariatric surgery, vitamin supplementation is often needed, since food consumption is more limited. There are occasional cases of scurvy in the U.S. each year, primarily among older smokers living in extreme poverty and experiencing homelessness, who may have no access to fresh food at all. So none of the above is to suggest that there isn’t a role for vitamins in specific situations.

It is important to note that just because we need some amount of each vitamin to survive does not mean more is better. You do not get even less scurvy if you take more vitamin C. Taking huge doses of vitamin A will not help you see better (and is, in fact, dangerous). In a sense, this is what we have learned from all of these studies of vitamin supplements. Just because a small amount is vital and lifesaving doesn’t mean more is better.

So: reason 1 to take vitamin supplements is if you have a diagnosed severe deficiency in a particular vitamin, probably as a result of an illness or genetic condition or due to extreme deprivation (poverty, homelessness).

Reason 2 for taking vitamins: You are pregnant or planning to become pregnant

During pregnancy, and before, prenatal vitamins are recommended. There are two basic motivations for this: folic acid (or folate) and possibly iron.

Folate is a nutrient found in food that is essential for infant development. When pregnant women are deficient in folate, it can lead to an elevated risk of neural tube defects (conditions that affect the spinal cord and brain). Folate levels can be increased by taking either folic acid or folate directly in prenatal vitamins. (I have written before about the question of whether folate is “better.” The short version is that it might be for some people, but we don’t have a lot of strong evidence proving that.) There is good randomized-trial evidence showing a reduction in neural tube defects with folic acid supplementation. So if you are pregnant or planning to become pregnant, take a supplement.

Pregnancy can also lead to anemia. This doesn’t happen for everyone, but it’s more common than when not pregnant. If you’re anemic (primary symptom: being tired; detection: blood test), iron supplements can help.

Prenatal vitamins, as typically developed, do contain both folic acid (or folate) and iron. They also contain other things, like vitamin E and D and biotin and so on. You don’t need those! (Unless you have a specific vitamin deficiency; see above.) Some people have trouble tolerating large prenatal pills. As long as you are getting the folic acid and iron — which you can get in smaller, specific pills — you are getting the vitamins you need.

A note: This discussion applies to pregnancy and the period before pregnancy when you can build up folic acid. Prenatal vitamins are not necessary during breastfeeding.

Reason 3 for taking vitamins: You are a breastfed baby

Vitamin D deficiency in childhood can lead to rickets. This is not a significant issue in the developed world, but it still causes concern. For older kids, many foods have vitamin D added to make sure the levels are high enough. For infants who are consuming only breast milk, the concern is that if their mothers have low vitamin D levels, they will not get enough. The solution is vitamin D drops.

There is no direct evidence that vitamin D supplementation in infants leads to lower rates of rickets. There is evidence that it increases vitamin D concentration, but that’s mechanical, and we don’t have clear direct evidence of the next step — bone growth and health.

Having said that: rickets is less obscure than scurvy, and breastfed babies have no other source of nutrients. So I can see an argument for vitamin D drops, although if you forget for a day (or two), I definitely would not panic.

But what about…

I can anticipate some of what I will hear back on this, since people really, really believe in vitamins. So a final word: I am not saying you cannot keep taking your vitamins!

Taking vitamins might be the right thing for you. Many of us do things in service of our health that we think work, without hard evidence for it. For example, my father eats chia seeds every day even though I have repeatedly told him they do nothing. (Just last week he sent me a trial about chia seeds and type 2 diabetes, a disease he does not have. Hope spring eternal!)   Right now, I am rolling my foot on a spiky ball that I am convinced will fix my foot problems, even though deep down I know that the main problem is that I’m too old to run 35 miles a week without stretching adequately.

Maybe these things actually work for us; who knows? After all, the placebo effect is strong. If you feel like a multivitamin works for you, there is no harm in taking it. But there is also no demonstrated benefit. Our approach to the data should take that as the starting point.

A vitamin capsule opens to reveal fruits and vegetables on a blue background.

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Emily Oster

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I hear from many of you that the information on ParentData makes you feel seen. Wherever you are on your journey, it’s always helpful to know you’re not alone. 

Drop an emoji in the comments that best describes your pregnancy or parenting searches lately… 💤🚽🍻🎒💩

I hear from many of you that the information on ParentData makes you feel seen. Wherever you are on your journey, it’s always helpful to know you’re not alone.

Drop an emoji in the comments that best describes your pregnancy or parenting searches lately… 💤🚽🍻🎒💩
...

Milestones. We celebrate them in pregnancy, in parenting, and they’re a fun thing to celebrate at work too. Just a couple years ago I couldn’t have foreseen what this community would grow into. Today, there are over 400,000 of you here—asking questions, making others feel seen wherever they may be in their journey, and sharing information that supports data > panic. 

It has been a busy summer for the team at ParentData. I’d love to take a moment here to celebrate the 400k milestone. As I’ve said before, it’s more important than ever to put good data in the hands of parents. 

Share this post with a friend who could use a little more data, and a little less parenting overwhelm. 

📷 Me and my oldest, collaborating on “Expecting Better”

Milestones. We celebrate them in pregnancy, in parenting, and they’re a fun thing to celebrate at work too. Just a couple years ago I couldn’t have foreseen what this community would grow into. Today, there are over 400,000 of you here—asking questions, making others feel seen wherever they may be in their journey, and sharing information that supports data > panic.

It has been a busy summer for the team at ParentData. I’d love to take a moment here to celebrate the 400k milestone. As I’ve said before, it’s more important than ever to put good data in the hands of parents.

Share this post with a friend who could use a little more data, and a little less parenting overwhelm.

📷 Me and my oldest, collaborating on “Expecting Better”
...

I spend a lot of time talking people down after they read the latest panic headline. In most cases, these articles create an unnecessary amount of stress around pregnancy and parenting. This is my pro tip for understanding whether the risk presented is something you should really be worrying about.

Comment “link” for an article with other tools to help you navigate risk and uncertainty.

#emilyoster #parentdata #riskmanagement #parentstruggles #parentingstruggles

I spend a lot of time talking people down after they read the latest panic headline. In most cases, these articles create an unnecessary amount of stress around pregnancy and parenting. This is my pro tip for understanding whether the risk presented is something you should really be worrying about.

Comment “link” for an article with other tools to help you navigate risk and uncertainty.

#emilyoster #parentdata #riskmanagement #parentstruggles #parentingstruggles
...

Here’s why I think you don’t have to throw away your baby bottles.

Here’s why I think you don’t have to throw away your baby bottles. ...

Drop your toddlers favorite thing right now in the comments—then grab some popcorn.

Original thread source: Reddit @croc_docs

Drop your toddlers favorite thing right now in the comments—then grab some popcorn.

Original thread source: Reddit @croc_docs
...

Just keep wiping.

Just keep wiping. ...

Dr. Gillian Goddard sums up what she learned from the Hot Flash  S e x  Survey! Here are some key data takeaways:

🌶️ Among respondents, the most common s e x u a l frequency was 1 to 2 times per month, followed closely by 1 to 2 times per week
🌶️ 37% have found their sweet spot and are happy with the frequency of s e x they are having
🌶️ About 64% of respondents were very or somewhat satisfied with the quality of the s e x they are having

Do any of these findings surprise you? Let us know in the comments!

#hotflash #intimacy #midlifepleasure #parentdata #relationships

Dr. Gillian Goddard sums up what she learned from the Hot Flash S e x Survey! Here are some key data takeaways:

🌶️ Among respondents, the most common s e x u a l frequency was 1 to 2 times per month, followed closely by 1 to 2 times per week
🌶️ 37% have found their sweet spot and are happy with the frequency of s e x they are having
🌶️ About 64% of respondents were very or somewhat satisfied with the quality of the s e x they are having

Do any of these findings surprise you? Let us know in the comments!

#hotflash #intimacy #midlifepleasure #parentdata #relationships
...

Should your kid be in a car seat on the plane? The AAP recommends that you put kids under 40 pounds into a car seat on airplanes. However, airlines don’t require car seats.

Here’s what we know from a data standpoint:
✈️ The risk of injury to a child on a plane without a carseat is very small (about 1 in 250,000)
✈️ A JAMA Pediatrics paper estimates about 0.4 child air crash deaths per year might be prevented in the U.S. with car seats 
✈️ Cars are far more dangerous than airplanes! The same JAMA paper suggests that if 5% to 10% of families switched to driving, then we would expect more total deaths as a result of this policy. 

If you want to buy a seat for your lap infant, or bring a car seat for an older child, by all means do so! But the additional protection based on the numbers is extremely small.

#parentdata #emilyoster #flyingwithkids #flyingwithbaby #carseats #carseatsafety

Should your kid be in a car seat on the plane? The AAP recommends that you put kids under 40 pounds into a car seat on airplanes. However, airlines don’t require car seats.

Here’s what we know from a data standpoint:
✈️ The risk of injury to a child on a plane without a carseat is very small (about 1 in 250,000)
✈️ A JAMA Pediatrics paper estimates about 0.4 child air crash deaths per year might be prevented in the U.S. with car seats
✈️ Cars are far more dangerous than airplanes! The same JAMA paper suggests that if 5% to 10% of families switched to driving, then we would expect more total deaths as a result of this policy.

If you want to buy a seat for your lap infant, or bring a car seat for an older child, by all means do so! But the additional protection based on the numbers is extremely small.

#parentdata #emilyoster #flyingwithkids #flyingwithbaby #carseats #carseatsafety
...

SLEEP DATA 💤 PART 2: Let’s talk about naps. Comment “Link” for an article on what we learned about daytime sleep!

The first three months of life are a chaotic combination of irregular napping, many naps, and a few brave or lucky souls who appear to have already arrived at a two-to-three nap schedule. Over the next few months, the naps consolidate to three and then to two. By the 10-to-12-month period, a very large share of kids are napping a consistent two naps per day. Over the period between 12 and 18 months, this shifts toward one nap. And then sometime in the range of 3 to 5 years, naps are dropped. What I think is perhaps most useful about this graph is it gives a lot of color to the average napping ages that we often hear. 

Note: Survey data came from the ParentData audience and users of the Nanit sleep monitor system. Both audiences skew higher-education and higher-income than the average, and mostly have younger children. The final sample is 14,919 children. For more insights on our respondents, read the full article.

SLEEP DATA 💤 PART 2: Let’s talk about naps. Comment “Link” for an article on what we learned about daytime sleep!

The first three months of life are a chaotic combination of irregular napping, many naps, and a few brave or lucky souls who appear to have already arrived at a two-to-three nap schedule. Over the next few months, the naps consolidate to three and then to two. By the 10-to-12-month period, a very large share of kids are napping a consistent two naps per day. Over the period between 12 and 18 months, this shifts toward one nap. And then sometime in the range of 3 to 5 years, naps are dropped. What I think is perhaps most useful about this graph is it gives a lot of color to the average napping ages that we often hear.

Note: Survey data came from the ParentData audience and users of the Nanit sleep monitor system. Both audiences skew higher-education and higher-income than the average, and mostly have younger children. The final sample is 14,919 children. For more insights on our respondents, read the full article.
...

Happy Father’s Day to the Fathers and Father figures in our ParentData community! 

Tag a Dad who this holiday may be tricky for. We’re sending you love. 💛

Happy Father’s Day to the Fathers and Father figures in our ParentData community!

Tag a Dad who this holiday may be tricky for. We’re sending you love. 💛
...

“Whilst googling things like ‘new dad sad’ and ‘why am I crying new dad,’ I came across an article written by a doctor who had trouble connecting with his second child. I read the symptoms and felt an odd sense of relief.” Today we’re bringing back an essay by Kevin Maguire of @newfatherhood about his experience with paternal postpartum depression. We need to demystify these issues in order to change things for the better. Comment “Link” for a DM to read his full essay.

#parentdata #postpartum #postpartumdepression #paternalmentalhealth #newparents #emilyoster

“Whilst googling things like ‘new dad sad’ and ‘why am I crying new dad,’ I came across an article written by a doctor who had trouble connecting with his second child. I read the symptoms and felt an odd sense of relief.” Today we’re bringing back an essay by Kevin Maguire of @newfatherhood about his experience with paternal postpartum depression. We need to demystify these issues in order to change things for the better. Comment “Link” for a DM to read his full essay.

#parentdata #postpartum #postpartumdepression #paternalmentalhealth #newparents #emilyoster
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What does the data say about children who look more like one parent? Do they also inherit more character traits and mannerisms from that parent? Let’s talk about it 🔎

#emilyoster #parentdata #parentingcommunity #lookslikedaddy #lookslikemommy

What does the data say about children who look more like one parent? Do they also inherit more character traits and mannerisms from that parent? Let’s talk about it 🔎

#emilyoster #parentdata #parentingcommunity #lookslikedaddy #lookslikemommy
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SLEEP DATA 💤 We asked you all about your kids’ sleep—and got nearly 15,000 survey responses to better understand kids’ sleep patterns. Comment “Link” for an article that breaks down our findings!

This graph shows sleeping location by age. You’ll notice that for the first three months, most kids are in their own sleeping location in a parent’s room. Then, over the first year, this switches toward their own room. As kids age, sharing a room with a sibling becomes more common. 

Head to the newsletter for more and stay tuned for part two next week on naps! 🌙

#parentdata #emilyoster #childsleep #babysleep #parentingcommunity

SLEEP DATA 💤 We asked you all about your kids’ sleep—and got nearly 15,000 survey responses to better understand kids’ sleep patterns. Comment “Link” for an article that breaks down our findings!

This graph shows sleeping location by age. You’ll notice that for the first three months, most kids are in their own sleeping location in a parent’s room. Then, over the first year, this switches toward their own room. As kids age, sharing a room with a sibling becomes more common.

Head to the newsletter for more and stay tuned for part two next week on naps! 🌙

#parentdata #emilyoster #childsleep #babysleep #parentingcommunity
...

Weekends are good for extra cups of ☕️ and listening to podcasts. I asked our team how they pod—most people said on walks or during chores. What about you?

Comment “Link” to subscribe to ParentData with Emily Oster, joined by some excellent guests.

#parentdata #parentdatapodcast #parentingpodcast #parentingtips #emilyoster

Weekends are good for extra cups of ☕️ and listening to podcasts. I asked our team how they pod—most people said on walks or during chores. What about you?

Comment “Link” to subscribe to ParentData with Emily Oster, joined by some excellent guests.

#parentdata #parentdatapodcast #parentingpodcast #parentingtips #emilyoster
...