I have a question about the likelihood of a first-trimester miscarriage. General data suggests that 15% to 20% of pregnancies won’t progress, but around my friends (myself included) the vast majority (around 80%) have lost a baby at some point, most of us in the second pregnancy after having had a healthy baby already. At what point in pregnancy can we stop worrying about miscarriage? Can you help us?
—Already a mom and trying to conceive
One of the biggest — and I think most welcome — changes in discourse since I first wrote Expecting Better is that people are discussing pregnancy loss much more openly than in the past. Not everyone wants to discuss miscarriage, but by allowing people to do so if they want, it feels less alone.
The reality is that miscarriage is common — 20% of pregnancies is about average, at least among those detected around the time of a missed period. For women who have multiple children, the chance that they will also have at least one loss is higher. One study in Israel found that among women having their fifth or later child, 70% of them had at least one miscarriage.
The risk of miscarriage is highest early in pregnancy and declines sharply through the first trimester. The graph below shows pregnancy loss rates, by week, from perhaps the most comprehensive cohort study of this question. For pregnancies observed at 5 weeks, 20% of the pregnancies miscarried. As pregnancy goes on, miscarriage rates go down — they are down to 1% to 2% by the end of the first trimester. Although second-trimester miscarriages do happen, they are much less common.
One of the realities of pregnancy after loss is that it’s very hard to stop worrying, even as the pregnancy progresses. I hope the data here will give you some comfort.
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Hi Parentdata team! Can you please clarify why these percentages by week differ from the graphic you posted on miscarriage on Instagram January 3rd, 2023? For example, this graph shows a 7% chance of miscarriage at 10 weeks, whereas the graph on the Instagram post shows a 3% chance of miscarriage at 10 weeks. Would appreciate clarification on why there is a discrepancy! Thanks 🙂