Emily Oster

3 min Read Emily Oster

Emily Oster

How Careful Do We Need to Be in the First Trimester, Really?

Q&A on risk

Emily Oster

3 min Read

I feel like a lot of the pregnancy restrictions are targeted more toward the first trimester because of a higher link to abnormalities. However, many women don’t know they’re pregnant for a good part of that trimester. I have a long cycle and didn’t find out I was pregnant until I was seven weeks. I had a healthy baby, fortunately, but I was definitely taking decongestants (I had Covid the week before I found out I was pregnant), drinking alcohol, etc. during those first seven weeks. How do you make sense of this?

—Anonymous

To answer this, it’s useful to step back and remember how pregnancy dating works.  

We count pregnancy based on the first day of the last menstrual period. If you have a typical 28-day menstrual cycle, though, the first two weeks of that period you are definitely not pregnant. Ovulation and possible fertilization occurs (on average) around day 14. There are then two more weeks until your next missed period. At the time of the missed period, you’re dated as “four weeks pregnant.”  

A wrinkle on this is that if you have a longer cycle — say, 35 days — your missed period would be five weeks after your last period. So you would be coded as “five weeks pregnant.” However: you would be the same actual amount pregnant as the person with the four-week cycle at the day of their missed period. (A longer cycle reflects taking a longer time before ovulation — say, 21 rather than 14 days — but no difference after ovulation.)

This matters because behaviors like heavy alcohol use during this two-week window before your missed period do not seem to affect the baby, because of the way development occurs during that period. I’ve written more about drinking in this two-week wait period in a longer piece here

The time immediately after this — from the missed period through the next several weeks — is when fetal development is most vulnerable to heavy alcohol use in particular, and also other chemicals. That is why there is so much emphasis on behavior in the first trimester.

For people who are actively trying to get pregnant, or carefully monitoring their cycle, this advice is reasonable. As you point out, though, many women do not know they are pregnant until somewhat later, for various reasons. 

This leads to a complicated question about how to advise people. A few years ago, the CDC suggested that all women of childbearing age should avoid alcohol just in case they might be pregnant. This was met with ridicule (including by me), but you can see the puzzle they are trying to solve here. Perhaps the only policy that really makes sense is to make sure people are given the information (and access) they need to control their fertility in whatever way they want.

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#parentdata #refluxbaby #babyreflux #spitup #parentingadvice #emilyoster

Reflux: It’s more common than you think! Comment “Link” for an article by @thepediatricianmom breaking down the information we have about reflux — what it is, what you can do, and red flags to look out for.

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Comment “Link” for an article that breaks down potty training data from ParentData readers,  along with helpful tips and tricks.

#pottytraining #pottytrainingtips #pottytrainingproblems #parentdata #emilyoster

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🚽 It takes longer than three days (based on the data!)
🚽 Your child will have trouble staying dry at night.
🚽 Poop sometimes comes later than pee – this is common, you just have to work through it.

Comment “Link” for an article that breaks down potty training data from ParentData readers, along with helpful tips and tricks.

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Here’s a visualisation based on the paper, showing the injury rate by area. Beware the foam pit and the high-performance areas! Slam-dunking, though, seems fine.

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To celebrate, you can use the code “expectingbetter” for 15% off Web or Plus subscriptions on ParentData.org 💛

#bookbirthday #pregnancyadvice #parentdata #emilyoster
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Comment “Link” for a DM to listen to today’s podcast episode. 🎧

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Add your advice below! What do you wish you’d known about in advance, and what was a waste? ⬇️

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Comment “Link” for a DM to listen to today’s podcast episode. 🎧

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Comment “Link” for a DM to listen to today’s podcast episode. 🎧

#parentdata #parentdatapodcast #parentingpodcast #mathforkids #emilyoster
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Drop an emoji in the comments that best describes your pregnancy or parenting searches lately… 💤🚽🍻🎒💩

I hear from many of you that the information on ParentData makes you feel seen. Wherever you are on your journey, it’s always helpful to know you’re not alone.

Drop an emoji in the comments that best describes your pregnancy or parenting searches lately… 💤🚽🍻🎒💩
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It has been a busy summer for the team at ParentData. I’d love to take a moment here to celebrate the 400k milestone. As I’ve said before, it’s more important than ever to put good data in the hands of parents. 

Share this post with a friend who could use a little more data, and a little less parenting overwhelm. 

📷 Me and my oldest, collaborating on “Expecting Better”

Milestones. We celebrate them in pregnancy, in parenting, and they’re a fun thing to celebrate at work too. Just a couple years ago I couldn’t have foreseen what this community would grow into. Today, there are over 400,000 of you here—asking questions, making others feel seen wherever they may be in their journey, and sharing information that supports data > panic.

It has been a busy summer for the team at ParentData. I’d love to take a moment here to celebrate the 400k milestone. As I’ve said before, it’s more important than ever to put good data in the hands of parents.

Share this post with a friend who could use a little more data, and a little less parenting overwhelm.

📷 Me and my oldest, collaborating on “Expecting Better”
...

I spend a lot of time talking people down after they read the latest panic headline. In most cases, these articles create an unnecessary amount of stress around pregnancy and parenting. This is my pro tip for understanding whether the risk presented is something you should really be worrying about.

Comment “link” for an article with other tools to help you navigate risk and uncertainty.

#emilyoster #parentdata #riskmanagement #parentstruggles #parentingstruggles

I spend a lot of time talking people down after they read the latest panic headline. In most cases, these articles create an unnecessary amount of stress around pregnancy and parenting. This is my pro tip for understanding whether the risk presented is something you should really be worrying about.

Comment “link” for an article with other tools to help you navigate risk and uncertainty.

#emilyoster #parentdata #riskmanagement #parentstruggles #parentingstruggles
...